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  • Global power coal imports in the next three years are expected to decrease at an average annual rate of 2.6%

2024 European Cup Football Result Betting

2024-07-08 11:07:18 Coal Resource Network   Author: Du Rui  

Since this year,Global power coal market supply and demand is relatively tight: Chinese demand exceeds expectations,The United States & ldquo; second -level sanctions & rdquo; starting effective,The extremely hot weather in Asia's market stimulates power demand, etc.,These influences have pushed the price of global power coal。

Australian Industry、The latest issue of the Ministry of Science and Resources recently released the "Resource and Energy Quarter" pointed out,From the seasonal point of view,With the end of winter、Inventory starts to accumulate,At the same time, it has not entered the summer demand peak period,Global power coal demand in the first quarter is usually low。but but,Due to high domestic prices、The decline in coal production and increased total power generation,In the first quarter, the import volume of Chinese sea sports force coal increased。Indian demand also remain strong,It is mainly promoted by the increased demand for power generation and the relatively weak power generation in domestic hydropower and other renewable energy.。

Russian power coal exports are recently facing difficulties,Export volume in the first quarter of this year decreased by more than 25%,Impact factors include the expansion of sanctions in the United States、Russia's largest export market in Russia re -imposed import tariffs and Russian coal transportation restrictions。Although the first round of sanctions in Europe and the United States in 2022,Russian coal exports mostly have shifted to other markets,But the second -level sanctions aim to restrict the avoidance and trade re -distribution。

2024 European Cup Betting Site in GermanySince 2024,Weather factors also play an important role in the global power coal market。Most of Asia is experiencing extreme high temperature weather,Gao Feng Early Warning Release time far as early as the summer cooling demand of previous years。La Nina weather may still appear later this year,Australian Meteorological Agency has officially rang La Nina alert,This increases the possibility of heavy rainfall and floods that may disrupt the supply of coal markets。

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Despite the factors of mutual competition,But it is expected to be within the outward period of 2026,Global Sea Sports Coal Import will decline。Display of the Season Report,Before 2026,Global power coal inlet volume is expected to decrease at an average annual rate of 2.6%,From the estimated 1.12 billion tons in 2023 to 1.037 billion tons in 2026,Where,China and Europe are the main factor that drives the decline in the overall import volume。

First is China,This year, the amount of sports coal in China is expected to exceed expectations。Display of the Season Report,mid -2024 mid -year,China's power coal import demand will remain strong,Contrary to the decline in previous expectations。In the first quarter of this year,China's power coal imports reached 89 million tons,increased 13%from the same period last year。This is mainly to continue electrification with the industrial process、Strong sales of electric vehicles and increase in heating/cooling demand,The demand for the power industry has risen significantly。

Report estimation,China's power generation in 2024 will increase by 5.1%,consistent with economic growth forecast。but but,Domestic power coal production is expected to increase by only 1.1%。Affected by the coal mine accident and security supervision of the main domestic production area,Domestic coal production capacity is limited to a certain extent,Further stimulated the import demand of China's shipping coal during this period。

Although there are downlink risk factors,But the predicted in the latest "Quarter Report",China's power coal import volume will increase compared to the March forecast value,but still below the level of 2023。During the outlook,2024 European Cup Betting Site in GermanyWith the increase in the proportion of renewable energy in energy structure、Import tariff recovery and increased hydropower capacity,It is expected that China's power coal import volume will decline。

Indian imports will be supported by the growth of industrial and consumers' usage。So far from 2024,The demand in India has always maintained strong,January to February, the import volume of power coal is 39%higher than the same period in 2023。During the period,The demand for power and industry that relies on power coal is strong。Although domestic power coal production continues to increase,But the continuous hydropower and the decline in the output of renewable energy have also stimulated import demand。

Growth in strong economy、The acceleration of urbanization process and the promotion of industrial activities,It is expected to be within the outlook,Indian sea capacity coal import volume will show a growth trend。Although India is increasing domestic power coal output,But it may not be enough to meet the growth of power demand,India is still one of the few markets that continue to expand coal power generation capabilities。It is expected to be 2026,Indian power coal imports will increase 13%over 2023。

Japan、South Korea and Taiwan's imports are expected to decline slightly。Display of the Season Report,It is expected to be 2026,Japan、The import volume of South Korea and Taiwan will be maintained at the current level。In the first quarter of this year,Japan、The demand for power coal in South Korea and Taiwan is roughly the same as in the past few years,Only slight decline。These economies have announced various commitments on net zero emissions and emission reductions。Although these commitments are expected to lead to a slight decrease in demand by 2026,But this trend will accelerate after 2030。

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Due to the decrease in Russian coal supply and the decline in global demand,During the outlook,The export volume of the sea sports power coal is expected to be reduced。During the period,Weather factors may also affect the stability of power coal supply during the prospects。rainwater will flood the mine and cause the ground to wet,to cut 2024 European Cup Official Website Betting Predictionsoff the mine channel,At the same time, affect coal processing and transportation。

It is expected to be within the prospects,Russian power coal export will decline。First,China's domestic price decline and China re -sign the country that has not signed a free trade agreement to levy coal import tariffs,Russian coal competitiveness decreases。In the first quarter of 2024,Russian power coal exports decreased by 28%year -on -year。

Next,The United States has expanded sanctions on Russia。December 2023,The United States approves the implementation of secondary sanctions on Russia,February 2024,The scope of sanctions expands to a specific Russian coal producer,Make foreign financial institutions facing a risk of secondary sanctions when conducting or reaching a transaction with sanctions。Secondary sanctions may also affect importers in China and India,After the main sanctions in the first round,Russia mainly shifted the supply of power coal to China and India。other,South Korea, which accounts for 15%of Russian power coal exports, is also encouraging buyers to reduce the import of coal from Russia。

Russia will cancel the export tax of power coal and smoke-free coal linked to the exchange rate during May-August,To support its domestic coal industry to avoid the impact of sanctions and Chinese import tax。Russia levied these tariffs for the first time in September 2023,After a suspension in January 2024,and reorganized in March 2024。Despite this policy change,But it is expected that Russian coal exports in 2024 will drop from 133 million tons in 2023 to 115 million tons,Keep it relatively stable afterwards。

Indonesia's domestic demand increase is expected to restrict export growth。In the first quarter of 2024,Indonesian coal exports remain strong,Demand for India and China is strong,Driving the export of Power Coal in Indonesia in the first two months of this year increased by 16%year -on -year,At the same time,Russian supply reduction may also help support the demand of Indonesian coal。

Although it is expected that the export of Indonesia in 2024 will maintain a strong growth,But Indonesian coal export prospects are affected by domestic and international factors。Although the performance in the first quarter is strong,But it is expected 2024 European Cup Football Result Bettingthat China's demand will decline during the outlook。China is the main export market of Indonesia,2023,Indonesia exported 216 million tons of coal to China,44%of the total exports。Although Indonesia's domestic coal production is increasing,but it is expected that most of the increments will be used to supply the domestic market,To meet the growing domestic demand。Overall,It is expected that Indonesian power coal exports will increase slightly during the outlook。

Australian exports have recovered from supply interruption。Since this year,Australian power coal export strong,The export volume of power coal in the first quarter reached 49 million tons,increased by 7.5%year -on -year。It is expected to be within 2024 remaining,Global coal demand will continue to bring support to the exports of Australian coal。China Limit the informal import restrictions on Australia Coal,Australia has resumed the export of power coal to China,At the same time,I hope that the state's sanctions on Russia will also drive the demand for Australian coal to a certain extent。It is expected to be within the outlook,Australian power coal exports will rise steadily。

United States、Coal exports in Colombia and South Africa will drop。In the first quarter,United States、Coal exports of coal production countries such as Colombia and South Africa decreased by about 20%year -on -year。After the collapse of the Balt Motor Bridge in March,One of the main export hubs in the United States, Baltimogang coal exports appear delay。At the same time,Colombian coal supply is also hindered by the blockade of indigenous people。

Another report released by the Agricultural Department of the United States,After the Hassy attacks the Red Sea ship,The ship was forced to bypass Africa。This leads to an increase in the number of ships to South Africa,Conduct of serious congestion at the port of refueling,Bring huge pressure to the infrastructure of the port,South African power coal exports are limited。

It is expected to be within the prospects,The export volume of the above countries will drop from 173 million tons to 157 million tons,drop to 15%。

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Looking at it overall,Supply interruption and increased demand leads to rising global power coal prices。In the first 2024 European Cup Football Result Bettingquarter of 2024,Newcastle 6000 calories power coal prices are basically maintained in the range of $ 120-130,Demand off season、Weather conditions are mild to keep the price stable。

Price starts to rise at the end of April,From the beginning of May, it will reach $ 144/ton,Main influencing factors include: the light season with mild climate in the past,Several Asian countries have encountered extreme hot weather this year; affected by logistics problems and the influence of US sanctions,Russia's supply decreases; the collapse of the Balt Momo Bridge has caused US coal supply to interrupt; it is expected that the northern hemisphere will be extremely hot in summer,Increase buyers' purchase volume。

Display of the Season Report,Due to expected summer heat in the northern hemisphere、Russian coal supply in the Asian market decreases and may occur in La Nina,It is expected that the price of power coal will remain high for the whole year。but but,With the increase in production costs,,Price fluctuations may continue,But it is expected that the price is unlikely to fall below the level of $ 100/ton。

Editor in charge: Zhang Lei

Tags: Global Power Coal